The 2025 NPB stove league was one of the most dramatic and information-heavy offseasons in recent memory.

Domestic free agency finally moved, MLB departures happened almost simultaneously, and franchises clearly split into two camps:

• Teams pushing all-in for a championship
• Teams fully committing to rebuilding

This article provides a complete recap of the 2025 NPB stove league as of December 25, 2025, followed by a fully reflected 2026 season standings prediction for both leagues.

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🔍 Three Defining Trends of the 2025 NPB Stove League

1️⃣ Domestic Free Agency Actually Mattered

For years, NPB free agency meant “declare → re-sign.”
In 2025, declaring free agency almost guaranteed movement, fundamentally changing roster construction.

2️⃣ Simultaneous MLB Departures

Elite sluggers and frontline starters pursued MLB opportunities at the same time, rapidly destabilizing competitive balance across both leagues.

3️⃣ Clear Organizational Direction

Teams chose a side:

• Win now
• Reset for the future

Franchises stuck in between paid the highest price.

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🔁 Major FA, Posting & Transfer Moves (as of Dec 25, 2025)

Category	Player	Former Team	New Team / Status
Domestic FA	Kazunari Ishii	Fighters	Lions
Domestic FA	Go Matsumoto	Fighters	Giants
Domestic FA	Masayuki Kuwahara	BayStars	Lions
Domestic FA	Hikaru Ito	BayStars	Eagles
Domestic FA	Takahiro Matsuba	Dragons	Re-signed
Domestic FA	Naoya Togo	Hawks	Declared
Overseas FA	Takahiro Norimoto	Eagles	Declared
Posting	Kazuma Okamoto	Giants	MLB process
Posting	Munetaka Murakami	Swallows	MLB talks
Posting	Tatsuya Imai	Lions	MLB talks
Posting	Kona Takahashi	Lions	MLB talks

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🎄 The Face of the Offseason: Kohei Arihara’s Stunning Return

The defining move of the entire offseason was Kohei Arihara returning to the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters.

Why it matters:

• First NPB return in six years
• Reported 4-year, ¥30 billion contract
• Won a bidding war against the Giants and Hawks

This wasn’t just a signing.
It was a declaration:
Nippon-Ham has shifted from development mode to championship mode.

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🇺🇸 MLB Departures and Their League-Wide Impact

Major Departures (including pending)

• Kazuma Okamoto (Giants)
• Munetaka Murakami slugger”] (Swallows)
• Tatsuya Imai (Lions)
• Kona Takahashi (Lions)

Immediate consequences:

• Central League: Severe power shortage
• Pacific League: Urgent need to rebuild rotations

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🧠 Team-by-Team Offseason Grades (Quick Take)

✅ Winners

• Fighters: Arihara turns them into title favorites
• Lions: Aggressive FA acquisitions add immediate value

⚖️ Mixed Results

• Giants: Active, but no knockout move
• Eagles: Heavy losses offset by veteran experience

❌ Losers

• Hawks: Arihara miss looms large
• Swallows: Post-Murakami rebuild unavoidable

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🔮 2026 NPB Standings Prediction (Stove League Fully Reflected)

The result of this offseason is a stark contrast:

• Pacific League: Clear hierarchy
• Central League: Complete chaos

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🟦 Pacific League Prediction (2026)

🥇 1st — Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters

• Arihara anchors the rotation
• Young hitters peak simultaneously
  This is not hype — this is a championship roster.

🥈 2nd — Orix Buffaloes

• Strong structure, weaker ace presence
• Safe but limited ceiling

🥉 3rd — Chiba Lotte Marines

• Low volatility, consistent execution
• The most “logical” third-place team imaginable

4th — Seibu Lions

• FA gains help, pitching losses hurt
• Wide variance team

5th — Rakuten Eagles

• Direction unclear
• Transitional pain unavoidable

6th — SoftBank Hawks

• Aging core
• Star power without cohesion

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🟥 Central League Prediction (2026)

🥇 1st — Hanshin Tigers

• Pitching + defense = stability
• The safest pick in a volatile league

🥈 2nd — Yokohama DeNA BayStars

• League-best offensive ceiling
• Pitching determines everything

🥉 3rd — Yomiuri Giants

• Rebuilding post-Okamoto
• Competitive but unspectacular

4th — Hiroshima Carp

• Strong arms, thin bats
• Too many close losses

5th — Tokyo Yakult Swallows

• Murakami void is massive
• Reliant on ballpark variance

6th — Chunichi Dragons

• Pitching alone isn’t enough
• Run production remains critical issue

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✍️ Final Takeaway: A Defining Offseason

The 2025 NPB stove league rewarded only decisive franchises.

Among them, Kohei Arihara’s return to Nippon-Ham stands as the single move that reshaped the competitive landscape.

As we head into 2026:

• Teams that acted boldly will reap the rewards
• Teams that hesitated will fall behind